The past several years have been challenging for homebuyers and those looking to refinance. High interest rates, elevated home prices, limited housing supply, and ongoing inflation pressures have made achieving the dream of homeownership more difficult.

Looking ahead to 2026, the mortgage industry shows signs of stabilization. While challenges remain, certain trends suggest more opportunities for buyers and refinancers this year. This article explores four key factors impacting the mortgage industry—interest rates, housing inventory, home prices, and wages—and what they could mean for your homebuying decisions in 2026.

1. Interest Rates Likely To Remain Steady

Interest rates continue to be a key driver of mortgage affordability. Since 2024, the Federal Reserve has been adjusting interest rates to balance inflation and economic growth. By 2025, mortgage rates stabilized somewhat, and many experts expect this trend to continue into 2026.

While mortgage rates are still well above pre-pandemic levels, they are generally expected to hover in the 6% to 6.5% range for a 30-year fixed loan, depending on inflation and broader economic conditions. The Fed may make a few adjustments throughout year, but rates are not expected to fall dramatically in 2026.

It’s also important to remember that a Fed rate cut doesn’t automatically translate to a proportional drop in mortgage rates. For example, if mortgage rates were 6.5% before a Fed rate cut of .5%, the new mortgage rates won’t automatically be 6% after the cut, but they may trend lower over time.

What This Means for You: Even a small drop in rates can make a noticeable difference in your monthly payment. If you’re thinking about buying or refinancing in 2026, staying informed and working with a Mortgage Loan Officer can help you when the time is right.

2. Housing Inventory Is Improving

The housing supply crunch has eased slightly, but inventory remains a factor in many markets. Over the past few years, construction delays, labor shortages, and high demand limited the number of homes available, leading to intense competition and rising prices.

For 2026, both new-home construction and existing-home listings are expected to continue increasing. Builders are not only adding more homes overall but also focusing on more affordable options such as townhomes and duplexes, particularly in regions where supply has lagged demand. In addition, approximately 40% of builders report cutting prices on new construction homes by about 5% and are offering additional incentives like mortgage rate buydowns which temporarily lower a buyers interest rate for  a certain amount of time, commonly two or three years.

Existing home inventory is expected to rise nearly 9% year over year, due in part to the gradual easing of the “mortgage rate lock-in effect.” This occurs when homeowners are reluctant to sell because they would need to finance a new home at a higher interest rate than their current mortgage. As a result, existing home inventory has remained relatively low in recent years. Today, approximately 80% of U.S. homeowners with a mortgage have an interest rate below 6%, down from approximately 85% in 2025. As a result, existing home sales are expected to increase by about 1.7% in 2006, after remaining flat in 2025.

What This Means for You: With more homes on the market, buyers may face less competition and have more room to negotiate. While some high-demand areas will stay competitive, having more options can make it easier to find a home that fits your lifestyle, needs, and budget.

3. Home Prices To Rise Moderately

After years of rapid growth, we expect a more moderate pace of home price appreciation in 2026. While significant price drops are unlikely, the pace of increase should be more predictable, with estimates around a 2.2% median price appreciation, depending on location.

Markets that saw dramatic price surges—like coastal cities and tech hubs—may experience slower growth, while more affordable regions like the Midwest could continue to see steady increases as buyers look for lower-cost alternatives. The expansion of new, affordable housing also supports more balanced market conditions.

What This Means for You: Steadier prices can take some of the pressure off, giving buyers more room to negotiate and plan without feeling rushed by worries that prices could rise further or that bidding wars could intensify.

4. Wages Expected To Outpace Inflation

Housing affordability is expected to improve in 2026 as wage growth continues to outpace inflation. The average wage increase in 2026 is expected to be around 3.5% whereas current inflation sits at 2.6% as of the January 2026 report. As incomes rise faster than the cost of living, buyers may find it easier to manage monthly housing expenses. In fact, the typical mortgage payment is projected to account for less than 30% of household income for the first time since 2022, a key benchmark often used to measure affordability.

What This Means for You: While housing costs remain elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels, stronger wage growth can help offset higher interest rates and home prices. This shift may provide some relief for buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines, particularly those with stable employment and growing incomes. Identifying a monthly payment that fits your budget can help you determine the right time to enter the market.

Key Takeaways for 2026

• Interest rates are likely to remain steady, with modest fluctuations possible.
• Housing inventory is improving, offering more options for buyers and greater negotiating power.
• Home price growth is expected to moderate, providing a more predictable and manageable market.
• As wages outpace inflation in 2026, improved affordability may help more buyers comfortably manage monthly mortgage payments, making homeownership more attainable despite higher interest rates and home prices.

While interest rates, inventory, and home values may not return to pre-pandemic norms immediately, 2026 looks to be a year of stabilization, offering opportunities for buyers and refinancers alike. Working with an FNBO Mortgage Loan Officer can help you understand your options and get prequalified before you start your home search.