FNBO Unveils 2026 Financial Outlook

Co-Authored by CIO Rusty Vanneman & SVP Kurt Spieler, Report Examines Market Concentration, AI Productivity, Diversification Opportunities and the Importance of Discipline

OMAHA, Neb. January 2026 - FNBO (First National Bank of Omaha) today released the FNBO 2026 Outlook: Stay Invested, Stay Diversified, Stay Disciplined, offering a comprehensive analysis of the economic, market and behavioral forces shaping investment decisions in the year ahead.

The 2026 Outlook underscores a planned leadership transition at FNBO Wealth. The report is co-authored by Senior Vice President, Investment Management Kurt Spieler and Rusty Vanneman, who will succeed Spieler in the CIO role, as announced earlier this month.

“Each year, we have shared market and economic data alongside our views on the investment landscape. As this year’s Outlook also marks a personal transition, our focus remains on understanding investment goals and guiding clients to the appropriate asset allocation for meeting those objectives,” said Kurt Spieler, Senior Vice President, Investment Management, FNBO.

Key themes and perspectives include:

• Stay Invested: Market volatility can test an investor’s resolve and lead to emotional decisions, but investors can be rewarded for maintaining a disciplined approach, a long-term time horizon and a prudent rebalancing plan.
• Economic Growth and Productivity: Historically, economic activity is driven by the growth in the number of workers and the increase in real output per worker, or productivity. As fewer people enter the workforce, growth in the 2020s is increasingly derived from productivity, specifically from a focus on corporate efficiency and AI benefits.
• Labor Market and Inflation Pressures: Total employment growth has decelerated, and while the unemployment rate remains relatively low, it has been consistently rising. Inflation and affordability remain a concern, while consumer spending is being driven largely by high-net-worth households that have yet to meaningfully pull back.
• Market Concentration and Valuations: U.S. large-cap performance has been dominated by a narrow group of mega-cap technology stocks, increasing market concentration and portfolio risk. At the same time, stock market valuations have pushed to the highest levels of this century, increasing vulnerability when market leadership shifts.
• Diversification Opportunities: Market leadership rotates, making diversification across regions and asset classes essential. Valuations are more attractive outside the largest U.S. companies, with small- and mid-cap stocks trading at their largest discount in decades, while international equity valuations remain close to long-term averages.
• Bonds and Alternatives: Higher absolute yields make Treasury bonds more attractive than they have been over the last decade and help minimize downside risk. In this environment, diversifying from traditional assets may improve portfolio resilience.
• Stay Disciplined: Long-term asset allocation and sticking to the plan in periods of volatility can drive investor returns. Maintaining a disciplined approach and prudent rebalancing helps manage behavioral biases and positions portfolios to meet return objectives

“This year’s Outlook focuses on themes that have consistently guided FNBO’s investment thinking: ‘Stay Invested, Stay Diversified, Stay Disciplined.’ These principles reflect a long-term approach that prioritizes logic and data over emotional reactions, and helps position portfolios to navigate changing market conditions,” said Rusty Vanneman, Chief Investment Officer, FNBO.

To read the full text of the FNBO 2026 Outlook—visit here.

About FNBO
FNBO (First National Bank of Omaha), a subsidiary of First National of Nebraska, Inc. (FNNI), is one of the largest privately held banks in the US and has been in business for more than 165 years. FNNI and its affiliates have nearly $35 billion in assets and 5,000 employees. Primary banking offices are located in Nebraska, Colorado, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, South Dakota, Texas and Wyoming, providing personal and business banking, mortgage, payment solutions, wealth management and more. Founded in 1857, FNBO has maintained its commitment to customers and helping build strong communities. Learn more at FNBO.com and connect on Facebook, X and Instagram. Member FDIC. Equal Housing Lender.

For information contact:
Sally Christensen
402-871-1933
schristensen@fnbo.com